Recently i saw new ad of Max New York Life Insurance on Television, where in they are trying to convey message that they are the only one who are not Mis-Selling financial products & indirectly hinting that every one else is Mis-Selling Financial Products..My 1st impression was that they might have taken cue from my Article “Beware of Your Relationship Manager/Personal Banker” dated April 13, 2012 as i highlighted the same concern through my article..I am sharing the link of that article with the reader’s of my this post
https://www.nitinbhatia.in/personal-finance/beware-of-relationship-manager-personal-banker/
Anyways Mis-Selling is rampant in BFSI (Banking Financial Services & Insurance) and No one can stop the same…Stopping the same means you are out of business. I can bet that today if u come to know all the terms and conditions of Insurance policy then even if Govt allow 200% exemption on Insurance premium under section 80(c), No one will buy Insurance..It is most Mis-Sold product in Financial Sector..Anyways i will through more light on this topic in my next blog…This blog is all about even more dangerous investment i.e. investment through SIP i.e. Systematic Investment Plan.
Hope u will agree that all financial investments by investors are based on his or her perception about that particular investment option…I would like to quote e.g. of my previous land lord who was senior citizen..His favourite investment tool or rather i say he was big fan of FD (Fixed Deposit) and Savings account..He had a full peace of mind that all his investments are safe…One day during informal chat i told him that Govt only secure investments upto 1 Lac in Savings account & FD’s…He was shocked to know this and then he diversified his investment in different branches of various banks to safeguard his investment…My objective was not to scare him but to alert him or inform him about the existing rule or u can say to create Financial awareness…Though this scenario is highly unlikely but when the question is of hard earned money then we should be aware of all the implications.
Similarly in case of SIP (Another Mis-Sold Concept), the Mutual Fund Industry is successful in creating 2 perceptions about SIP (a) Investments in SIP are safe becoz of Cost Averaging therefore you will get only positive returns in SIP (b) You should continue to invest even when Markets are falling to take advantage of Lower NAV’s. I have spoken to numerous people regarding SIP but i must say that these 2 perceptions are now permanently programmed in the minds of Investor.
To clarify, let me start with Statement that Investments in SIP are also equally unsafe as your Demat portfolio…SIP is not a Magical Stick that it will always give positive returns irrespective of Market Movement..Let me explain in layman language, Basically the returns on SIP investment depend on following factors
(a) Time of Start & End of SIP: The entry and exit timing is very crucial factor for SIP returns, If u have entered in Bear phase and exit in Bull phase then in all probability your returns will be good & vice versa.
(b) Investment Period: Suppose you opted for 12 SIP’s of 1000 Rs each..Every month you will purchase units at particular NAV (Net Asset Value)…To understand better lets assume Scenario A i.e. when u started SIP, NAV was 20 Rs and when u stopped SIP NAV was 23 Rs. During 12 months NAV reached at peak of 28 Rs..For 12 months your average NAV cost is 25 Rs…Which implies Market peaked during these 12 months and you purchased at high rate becoz of which your average is high at 25 Rs but at the end of SIP NAV is 23 Rs…Therefore you are at Loss…In simple terms you invested more during Bull Phase thus ur Average Cost is higher than today’s NAV.
Scenario B i.e. when u started NAV was 20 Rs and when u end NAV was 23 Rs. During 12 months NAV bottom out at 16 Rs & Your average cost is 21 Rs…Which implies Market was in bear phase most of the times during these 12 months and you purchased at low rate becoz of which your average is low at 21 Rs but at the end of SIP, NAV is 23 Rs…Therefore your investments are profitable …In simple terms you invested more during Bear Phase thus ur Average Cost is lower than today’s NAV.
In short cost averaging also cannot ensure positive returns, Timing is important.
To break 2nd myth that you continue to invest when markets are falling..I will take my example of Jan, 2008…I invested in some of the best performing MF’s at that time through SIP…I started investing in July, 2007 & then the markets peaked at around 20k in jan, 2008 and i was investing in these mutual funds through SIP…Since markets were in bull phase for quite sometime so my average NAV was on higher side..Now market started falling & i continued with my investment and Market bottom out at around 8k in few months so as NAV of my Mutual Funds..At that time my average purchase NAV was double then current NAV (At that time)…The lesson i learnt was that you can’t beat current market NAV by taking advantage of cost averaging. During bear phase in this scenario the Average Cost will always be much higher then Current Value if u started investing during Bull Phase…Lets take e.g. if u bought 2 units of MF at 200 Rs during bull phase therefore average is 100 Rs per unit now the NAV drop to 40 Rs and you buy another 3 at around this rate through SIP therefore now ur new average is 64 Rs against previous 100 Rs but current NAV is also 40 Rs therefore you are at loss of 24 Rs per unit for 5 units…When NAV will drop psychologically you are buying more and satisfied or rather happy that your average is dropping but u forgot that your current NAV is also dropping simultaneously…Most of the investors don’t understand this…When NAV will increase then your average is also increasing…In short if ur timing is not right then during bear phase current NAV will be lower then your average NAV with high standard deviation and during bull phase your average NAV will be lower than current NAV with low Standard Deviation therefore timing of entry & exit can make or break your whole game plan.
Now can someone tell me how your personal banker can make SIP investments profitable for u, we observed that it all depends on investment timings & No one in this world is master in timing the Market as Market is very unpredictable…
Based on my experience i can give u successful mantra for making money in equity market (including Equity/MF) i.e. Enter when market Bottom out and Exit when Market Peak but catch is no one can do that. If someone can master this art then he can play in millions else there is no way one can avert wealth depletion including Mutual Funds during blood bath…Lets accept and understand that Mutual Funds NAV will increase during Bull Phase & will definitely drop during Bear Phase..Only difference is Some Mutual Funds will grow faster then rest and some will fall faster then others..It all depend on Investment portfolio of Fund i.e. Shares it has in its portfolio…
If Mutual Fund investment through SIP has perfected in art to arrest downfall then all Mutual funds SIP should beat other indexes & always report profits irrespective of Market condition but unfortunately it’s not true , even top performing Mutual funds keep changing every 2 years…I remember in 2007, SBI Tax Gain ELSS was King of category but today it is placed among bottom heap…
Again i reiterate, SIP is not a magical stick so pls do thorough homework before investing in any Mutual Fund or for that matter in SIP. Timing of entry & exit is very important & only timing decides performance of your investment. Don’t fall into the trap of SIP. Invest wisely becoz its ur hard earned money.
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Hello Sir,
I am a beginner in starting to invest and your article on SIP investments was an eye opener. The query I am to put forth may be a very stupid one but could you please guide me on the following points.
1. What should be the value of NAV while starting SIP ..should it be less or more.
2. Which SIP is good for a beginner like me.
Hi Indu,
To answer your query
1. NAV does not have any relevance or significance to decide on start of SIP. Some MF’s with low NAV project the MF scheme as cheap compared to fund with high NAV by projecting that you will get more units but it does not have any significance. What matters is fund performance.
2. You may start SIP with HDFC Balance Fund (Growth option)
Thanks and BR
Nitin Bhatia
Dear Nitin Sir,
I have invested UTI Mid mutual fund, so just i want to know that it is correct investment or incorrect??
UTI mid cap fund is a good fund to invest.
Hi Nitin,
Mostly insurance advisers try to convince customers that FDs cant beat inflation whereas equity gives high returns(Upto 19% in long term, Did not specify how many years), personally I have also have negative experience with Equity through ULIP, I would like to know your opinion, Is Equity/ULIP good in any way?
The average return in Equity is now 12% & that too if you have invested in best performing funds. The entry and exit point is important. In same asset class you will have fund with 20% returns and fund with -5% returns. I will not suggest ULIP, you should keep Insurance and investment Separate.
I suggest if you wish to participate in equity without risking principal amount sort of capital protection fund. You open FD’s with Monthly Interest Payout option. With this Monthly interest amount, you start SIP in index fund. With this combination you can easily generate returns of 11%-12% without risking your capital/principal amount.
If you wish to play 100% safe than invest Monthly interest in Recurring Deposit account. You can generate approx 10.5% returns in your investment without any risk.
Hi Nithin,
V gud article.I always felt the same way about Sip,hve also burnt my fingers in the past in exactly the same situation as u’ve explained.
Based on the above reply to Shadab i woud like to get ur view on my query that if i want to invest approx 50 lakhs and want to generate a monthly income and live on it,what will be the safest mode,if it’s bank FDs then since only 1 lakh is secured by Govt. so shud i invest 50 different banks? what according to you wud be the best /safest & convenient strategy in my required scenario.plz advice.
You may invest in debt mutual funds and opt for SWP (Systematic Withdrawal Plan) to generate monthly income.
Sir could you pls suggest the best elss (SIP) that can be invested. Sir, Now the market is in bear phase or bull phase ? Is it the right time to invest ?
Currently market is in BULL phase. With new Govt, there is lot of optimism about future. Indian Markets have entered into long term Bull phase as Govt will focus to revive the economy and there will be major thrust on Infrastructure.
You may invest in Reliance Tax Saver Fund or ICICI Prudential Tax Plan.
If Timing is necessary even in mutual fund then Its not good to do that, Just Keep investing for long term is funda, Even i invested before 2008, continued investments and redeemed now, Value is mind blowing,
Though i read ur article in full but i felt we must not time exit and entry in MF etc.
Withing any fund class we can have best performing and worst performing funds e.g. in one of fund class best performing fund returned 125% in one year but worst performing fund’s return is just 25%. Thankfully your investment must be in best performing fund but there are still large chunk of investors who are stuck from last 6 years and NAV has now reached at 2008 levels. Also we need to take into account the lost opportunity or opportunity cost. If we calculate annualized returns instead of absolute return, we will get different picture.
Dear Nitin,
1) Please understand you will never always get good returns (no guarantee about it) and no method of investing is perfect including SIP or lump-sum.
2) Heading of article says “why-you-should-not-invest-in-sip”. Does that mean SIP is a financial Instrument? NO. Please understand SIP is not a technical word. When you invest any amount regularly, it is called SIP. So if you give any scenario of investing style and someone will come up with the definition of style appended by SIP.
3) As per example, you have started SIP in 2008 and at the bottom of market your average NAV was double than fund NAV. Now please understand if you are investing in Equity mutual fund for short term and using as an example than you are are mis-leading your readers. You should invest in equity mutual fund if and only if your goal is real long term (more than 10 years away).
4) When you start Investing you should plan your exit some years before your goal.
5) No one predict the bottom or high of market and if someone is claiming so, that mean he/she trying to fooling the public.
Thanks for sharing your inputs. The only objective of sharing this post was that normally financial planners project SIP as magic stick and portray that SIP can do wonders which is not the case. A SIP may also return negative returns or at best it deliver average returns. An average return of SIP for long term is 12% that too of good funds therefore timing is very crucial & moreover returns are not more than good debt funds. Average SIP cycle in India is 18-24 months therefore definition of short term or long term vary for each investor. I agree SIP is not a financial instrument but it is financial planning instrument which is misrepresented to misguide unaware investors.
Dear Nitin, The bull phase has only consolidated in the interim months after the new govt was installed. Should one wait for the market to hit the bottom again to start investing through SIP (i.e. buy when others are selling)? Otherwise which ELSS and SIP is good to invest in current scenario and for what time horizon? Plz guide.
Market is over heated. Valuations are not justifiable. If tax is not a concern then you can start with SIP in Balanced fund – debt oriented. Few suggestions from my end.
1. SBI magnum Monthly Income Plan – Floater
2. HDFC Multiple Yield Fund – plan 2005
Thank U Nitin. & What is your suggestion, if ELSS tax plan needs to be kept in perspective?
You can invest in ELSS through SIP route.
Hi Nitin,
You are correct! SIP is not a magic stick.
I do believe SIP is little bit better than the RD but involves market risks, plus timings of entry and
exists.
In recent past, SIP has been advertised so nicely that many investors think that SIP is a magical money plant which is NOT true at all.
Thanks,
SIPs are safer and ensure higher returns in the long run. They should be seen as a long term investing tool. Could you please give your opinion on this statement? Thank you.
I don’t agree. As i explained in my post also that it is all about entry and exit timings. Assuming, i entered through SIP last year in May’14 and now after 1 year i would like to exit. My SIP returns must be negative.
I want to invest in SIP for a long period of 30 years.Will that be profitable.Please explain as I need to invest for my retirement corpus.
You can expect a long term return of 10% to 12% from best performing mutual funds. As i explained in my posts on mutual funds that returns will depend on time to enter and exit. The concept of long term investment is dead. You may wait for markets to reverse before starting SIP.
I dont agree.. “SIP are safer and ensures higher return in the long run” is correct to limited assumption that the market is not volatile and the return accumulates itself. In case of mutual fund the market is highly volatile and you can not predict this market. Since you can not predict this market, it is not advisable to say it is safer in long run. What is long run again is a question of fact.
In case SIP is in the nature of static investment, let say, LIC/GOLD/Land/RD. These are good in long run as the return accumulates and the market is not much volatile.
So when you hear “SIP” understand in what
hi i am new to mutual fund. suppose i choose to invest Rs1000 every month through SIP for 1 year is this better?? instead of investing through SIP, i find is better to wait for market to go down in the month and invest manually. please suggest
A bottom of the market cannot be found. Take this month’s example, it is consistently going down and you don’t know when to invest. You may opt for value investing under which you will automatically invest more when markets are down and invest less when when markets are up. I will share a post on value investing shortly.
Hey, thanks for the info was tremendous helpful for a layman like me. anyway I want to know that my relationship manager is yet to open an account for me through SIP but he is still waiting for market to rise as I believe that is the bull phrase where my average cost will rise and this the good point to entry hence I opted for 500 a month for up-to 2 years from Kotak and yet to choose the plan so I would highly appreciate if you would suggest/advice me some point to remember to go well in this 2 years format rather believe my RM,
Hope to hear soon from you,
Thanks
Raju Chetri
It depends on your risk appetite and investment objective.
Not sure If u already have started one with Kotak.
The most important aspect of any MF is reading its
1)portfolio i.e. what sector holds the most weight age (
Example:
Kotak India Growth Fund – Series I – Regular Plan (G) — Infosys (9.4%), ICICI, HDFC, Marti Suzuki (8 to 9 % each)…
Sectorwise breakup (Banking/Finance – 30%) and Automotive (18%) and Technology (15%)….So, you need to see what is the future outlook of these sectors in next 2 years…Also read its past performance…
2) Asset allocation (example: Kotak India Growth Fund – Series I – Regular Plan (G) — deals with 95% equity/stock market)…so your money depends on how well those companies in portfolio performs in stock market.
In this case 95% of money is put in equities…hence risk is more…so will be reward…Its all about risk-reward in MFs and stocks.
3) Returns calculator of past. You can see how the MF scheme has performed during Bull run, Bear run or a sideways market.
Bullshit
Hey, the information is right but sip was started for the investors who can not make heavy investments in a single go. If you have enough money to invest as one time investment in a single go that too for a long term then one time investment is always better but if you don’t have enough money to invest as onetime then sip is the option. Yes, sips are better then one time investment is a gimmick created by companies just to sell the products.
Thanks for your comment. You may check the concept of Value Investing as an alternative to SIP. Please check following link
https://www.nitinbhatia.in/personal-finance/value-investing-alternative-sip/
Since last 4 years I am investing in SIP. I have a target to be discipline and continue investing for 25 years with a goal to give to my heir and social charity. What is the return I can expect after 25 years?
In developed and matured economy like USA where SIP has started long back, has anybody made loss?
A lot will depend on the time of exit. Today market is near 2008 levels. If your timing is right, you can only expect return of 10% to 12%.
hello sir ,equities are better investments than sip and mutual funds ?
You should not invest directly until unless you understand the market.
No sip manager says how many units the company takes from your units as charges i have invesyed both in mutualfunds and in sssls aftet 3 YeARS as there was no growth i sold for loss
As i shared entry and exit point is imp. Secondly, you can seek clarification on charges.
Nitinji, i have purchased mediclaim policy which cost around approx rs 7000. i received the welcome letter and certificate. But as per the company i was supposed to get cash less cards in 14 days time. Its been one and half month i have not received it, also the agent which was in continue touch with me is not responding , not picking my calls . What should i do , pls suggest. My contact no 8879908214.
Please contact helpline no of the insurance company.
Hi Nitin,
That was an excellent way of making the concept crisp and clear.
I am a first time investor and am planning to invest in MF through SIP for long term(may be 10-15 years). while googling, I came across a term called variable SIP. Can you pls throw some light on this.
Also, it would be helpful if you can give me an overview on what is Down/up market and from where we can find the result of such thing(Down/up).
pls suggest me where to invest(best MF from your view) and help me with the process of whom to approach for investing in MF though SIP.
Regards,
Abhi.
You may check my following post for more details.
https://www.nitinbhatia.in/personal-finance/value-investing-alternative-sip/
You may go through my posts in Stocks section for more information on stock market movement.
Hi. Please guide me as I want to invest 20000 per month in different SIPs for 11 years from now(goal). Practically by your market experience is it possible that I will get a return of 8% or less and how much possibility of going more than that?
The future returns cannot be predicted and it will also depend on type of mutual funds you will invest. Going by the past trend, you can expect a return of 10%-12%.
The current NIFTY PE is 21.
So it looks on the higher side.
Do you mean that right now we need to simply save the sip amount intpmsavings bank or liquid funds. The when market corrections happen, we need to start the variable sip like you explained?
Is my understanding correct?
You may check my following post for more details
https://www.nitinbhatia.in/stocks/stock-investment-enter-exit-market/
Hello Nitin,
I do agree to some of the points. However, also have a difference of opinion on on couple of them.
1. Cost averaging does not necessarily mean that the SIP’s return will always be positive. I have never heard of any concept in Investment Industry (Stocks/MF’s) which associates Cost averaging with return on investment. Cost averaging in Mutual Fund simply means that you are you are accumulating more units when NAV is down and less units when NAV is up.
2. I do agree that a lot of people try to miss-sell MF/SIP’s showing a very gloomy picture of making fast money. Ideally a person with no knowledge or limited understanding in stock market should ideally only invest in Mutual Find SIP’s if the investment period is more than 10 years (stritly not less than 7). This also does not guarantee a positive return. However, the worst performing mutual funds in last 10 years, despite the downturn in 2008 or 2011 has given return in the range of average 10%-12%. annually. (Not considering thematic or sectoral funds but pick any diversified mutual funds or Multicap funds which invests across all sectors). 10% – 12% is still better than what a post-tax return from Fixed or Recurring Deposit. The additional 3% pa return over traditional products like FD or RD actually works wonders in long run like 10 years and above. Going forward, the FD and RD rates are bound to fall with government impetus to reduce the lending rates steadily in Indian Economy which makes Mutual Fund’s a better option even for a layman who has a long term horizon.
3. Some people like you and I understand value investing. However, I feel majority of people do not understand the concept and neither can give enough time to it. That does not mean they should stay out of the Mutual Fund Industry. Another poor habit that I have seen across a lot of people is that they are not sincere about investment at all. To such people at least SIP in Mutual funds is an option rather than investing in traditional products or staying out completely. I do stress the point that past performance of the Mutual fund does not guarantee you the future returns, however, if funds have beaten their benchmark in last 2, year, 3 year, 5 year period, its not a bad choice to put your bet on. This benchmark can been seen on several sites like moneycontrol or valueresearch.
4. Now-a-days there are better options of investing in direct schemes of mutual funds. The expense ratio is less than regular schemes of mutual funds.
Best Regards,
Rahul Sharma
Thanks for sharing your views :)
Your article does not answer the question that is the headline of your article – Why you should not invest in SIP ? All you talk about is timing. How is it any different than non-SIP ?
it is already answered. If the timing goes wrong then returns can be negative. The equity investments are all about timing only. SIP is not a magical stick. It is SOLD as if it cannot deliver low or negative returns. It is mis-selling. In short, it is only a marketing gimmick.
Nitin sir,
should a person who has completed his SIP investment period , exit when his returns are on higher side or continue to wait indefinitely eg: HDFC top 200 fund ? Please advise
Pushpaji
Current market P/E is 24. It is last years peak when the market started downward journey. Though i am not a certified financial planner but if i would have been in your place, i will exit the stock market and again wait for right time to enter.
With all due respect, no one should invest their hard earned money in any form of equity when their time horizon is 12 months as you said in your example. For any time period less than 36 months, it is better to have those funds in FD or other government backed deposits. For anything less than 12 month, it’s not even a bad idea to just have those in your savings account.
SIP are meant to be long time. SIP is not day trading. Just because your cost average is above the current NAV, doesn’t imply that SIP is useless. The point is to hold for sufficiently long time and re-allocate to less risk funds when the goal time is nearing.
Your article is anti-thesis. You said timing is everything and also no-one can time. That’s the exact reason why we should invest through SIP and do it disciplined.
You may check the concept of value investing. Please click on following link
https://www.nitinbhatia.in/personal-finance/value-investing-alternative-sip/
correctly said venkatesh….For salaried class SIP is the best tool to maximise wealth
Hi
I really do not agree to the points mentioned here, other then the mis-selling by Banks and FIs by projecting SIPs risk free.
Seems you are yourself contradicting your statement, ” Timing market is not possible” vs. “Timing market is important in SIPs”.
Also, any equity investmnet for less then 7-10 years is never recommended and I believe if you have that kind of horizon then most of the times you will reap at least 10% tax free returns on your investments
Both the statements are in different context and standalone.